Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-14

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-06) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-06 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-06 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-06)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-06) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 291 (255 – 323) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (13 – 110)
Algeria 188 (158 – 215) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 81 (18 – -31)
Argentina 294 (249 – 335) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.6 (7 – 16)
Armenia 149 (124 – 172) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 35 (13 – -46)
Australia 24 (6 – 37) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 43 (5.2 – -6.5)
Austria 61 (41 – 80) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 13 (5.9 – -95)
Azerbaijan 99 (72 – 121) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 18 (8 – -69)
Bahrain 286 (250 – 321) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 16 (10 – 44)
Bangladesh 1153 (956 – 1355) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (8.6 – 17)
Belarus 1145 (978 – 1312) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (13 – 39)
Belgium 464 (408 – 520) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 46 (20 – -160)
Benin 51 (21 – 81) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 6.3 (3.3 – 61)
Bolivia 189 (156 – 213) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 20 (11 – 310)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 37 (18 – 53) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -48 (8.8 – -6.4)
Brazil 11012 (9393 – 12604) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 18)
Bulgaria 45 (26 – 63) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -140 (11 – -9.3)
Cameroon 102 (78 – 122) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 9.7 (5.8 – 28)
Canada 1453 (1265 – 1644) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (49 – -26)
Chad 33 (14 – 49) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.5) 29 (6.1 – -10)
Chile 2133 (1740 – 2516) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8 – 15)
China 12 (5 – 19) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 2.1) 5.6 (2.6 – -31)
Colombia 718 (585 – 835) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (8.5 – 17)
Cote dIvoire 73 (47 – 101) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 12 (5.6 – -340)
Croatia 25 (6 – 42) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 1.9) 8.1 (3.2 – -14)
Cuba 29 (9 – 47) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 120 (5 – -5.3)
Czechia 52 (31 – 75) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 230 (9.3 – -10)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 72 (45 – 90) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 16 (7 – -48)
Denmark 113 (83 – 135) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -60 (25 – -13)
Djibouti 35 (17 – 56) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 5.3 (3 – 25)
Dominican Republic 408 (342 – 461) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 20 (12 – 62)
Ecuador 399 (332 – 459) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -6.1 (-10 – -4.3)
Egypt 470 (405 – 539) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 21 (13 – 53)
El Salvador 70 (47 – 87) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 21 (8 – -31)
Equatorial Guinea 27 (12 – 40) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 14 (4.2 – -10)
Estonia 18 (2 – 36) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.5) 5.4 (2.2 – -11)
Finland 65 (44 – 84) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -15 (120 – -6.9)
France 668 (567 – 775) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (-30 – -8.9)
Gabon 96 (72 – 117) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.1 (5 – 19)
Germany 1006 (847 – 1143) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 100 (26 – -56)
Ghana 345 (310 – 384) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 20 (12 – 82)
Greece 24 (7 – 38) Unsure 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 11 (3.7 – -11)
Guatemala 99 (71 – 116) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.5 (4.9 – 17)
Guinea 87 (64 – 105) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 27 (9.4 – -29)
Guinea Bissau 62 (40 – 82) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 45 (8.9 – -15)
Honduras 115 (91 – 137) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -260 (19 – -17)
Hungary 41 (22 – 59) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -1600 (8.7 – -8.7)
Iceland 236511 (0 – 2385) Increasing 431.9 (0.1 – 25.1) -0.0044 (0.61 – -2.3)
India 4410 (3763 – 4971) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (13 – 22)
Indonesia 570 (451 – 676) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.8 – 28)
Iran 1987 (1652 – 2264) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 17)
Iraq 95 (71 – 114) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 17 (7.9 – -59)
Ireland 200 (166 – 239) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -33 (52 – -12)
Israel 35 (21 – 47) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -14 (27 – -5.7)
Italy 1253 (1093 – 1435) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -100 (48 – -24)
Japan 108 (81 – 131) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -15 (140 – -7.1)
Kazakhstan 157 (128 – 180) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -99 (27 – -17)
Kosovo 21 (6 – 34) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.8 – 2.2) 6.2 (2.7 – -20)
Kuwait 911 (751 – 1069) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 7.8 (6.4 – 9.9)
Kyrgyzstan 34 (17 – 51) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 21 (5.9 – -13)
Latvia 26 (1 – 50) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.7 – 2.5) 6 (2.3 – -9.1)
Lebanon 30 (11 – 49) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2) 6.7 (3.1 – -60)
Lithuania 23 (7 – 38) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 5.8 (2.7 – -48)
Luxembourg 17 (3 – 30) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 2) 13 (3.1 – -6.2)
Malaysia 57 (35 – 81) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -60 (12 – -8.5)
Maldives 58 (38 – 80) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 14 (6.1 – -56)
Mexico 2134 (1838 – 2453) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 23)
Moldova 155 (126 – 183) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 17 (9 – 170)
Morocco 163 (131 – 188) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -440 (21 – -18)
Nepal 43 (19 – 61) Increasing 1.9 (1.3 – 2.5) 3.8 (2.5 – 8.9)
Netherlands 285 (235 – 331) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -65 (41 – -18)
New Zealand 24 (0 – 39) Likely increasing 2.3 (0.7 – 3.9) 2.8 (1.3 – -21)
Niger 26 (8 – 43) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 6.8 (3 – -23)
Nigeria 230 (197 – 260) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -140 (30 – -21)
North Macedonia 30 (12 – 46) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 10 (4.1 – -19)
Norway 36 (19 – 55) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -39 (11 – -6.7)
Oman 201 (171 – 234) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 9.8 (6.8 – 18)
Pakistan 1993 (1741 – 2297) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 19)
Palestine 5206455 (0 – 18363) Likely increasing 4109.5 (0 – 94.8) -0.0014 (0.055 – -0.089)
Panama 181 (151 – 207) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -580 (24 – -21)
Paraguay 55 (21 – 87) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 17 (5.5 – -14)
Peru 3746 (3157 – 4330) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (15 – 46)
Philippines 291 (236 – 353) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 28 (12 – -97)
Poland 445 (369 – 521) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (10 – 39)
Portugal 275 (228 – 322) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 77 (19 – -37)
Puerto Rico 54 (32 – 75) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -24 (17 – -7.2)
Qatar 1552 (1309 – 1798) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.9 (8.1 – 13)
Romania 296 (244 – 341) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -200 (29 – -23)
Russia 13074 (11408 – 14713) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (16 – 31)
Saudi Arabia 2272 (1961 – 2609) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 23)
Senegal 118 (90 – 140) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (8 – -610)
Serbia 86 (62 – 105) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -22 (36 – -8.4)
Singapore 880 (747 – 993) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 19 (13 – 39)
Slovakia 18 (1 – 34) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.4) 7.6 (2.3 – -6.9)
Somalia 64 (41 – 91) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 20 (6.8 – -21)
South Africa 779 (633 – 902) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 9.1 (7.1 – 12)
South Korea 36 (22 – 50) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2) 5.1 (3.1 – 14)
Spain 1173 (1066 – 1269) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 31 (19 – 86)
Sri Lanka 26 (9 – 41) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 28 (5 – -7.9)
Sudan 157 (130 – 184) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.2 – 29)
Sweden 674 (568 – 784) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 20 (13 – 47)
Switzerland 55 (37 – 69) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -22 (24 – -7.7)
Thailand 26 (1 – 50) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.6 – 2.9) 4.7 (1.9 – -9.3)
Tunisia 23 (0 – 45) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.7) 7.6 (2.1 – -4.4)
Turkey 1907 (1659 – 2189) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 97 (29 – -66)
Ukraine 535 (455 – 614) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (16 – -620)
United Arab Emirates 852 (713 – 997) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.1 – 21)
United Kingdom 4566 (4079 – 5090) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -640 (66 – -53)
United Republic of Tanzania 14 (3 – 26) Unsure 0.8 (0.3 – 1.3) -7.4 (12 – -2.9)
United States of America 26376 (23391 – 29648) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 83 (32 – -140)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 64 (40 – 84) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 12 (5.8 – -130)
Zambia 78 (44 – 105) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2.2) 4.3 (3 – 7.8)